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| The El Niño |
El Niño and Indian Monsoon
El Niño Effects
Indian Monsoon
El Niño (Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is a band of warm ocean water temperatures which periodically develops in the Pacific off South America coast.There is a phase of 'El Niño– Southern Oscillation' (ENSO), this refers to variations in the temperature on the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and also in air surface pressure in the western tropical Pacific. The two variations are : the warm oceanic phase, called El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific, the other one is the cold phase that is called La Niña, which accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific.
Developing countries are dependent on agriculture and fishing, particularly those which are bordering in the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected by the both patterns. El niño is Spanish word for "the boy", and the capitalized term El Niño refers to the Christ child, Jesus. This term used because the periodic warming in the Pacific Ocean near South America is usually noticed around Christmas time.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a strong 60 per cent probability of El Nino this year along with a below-normal monsoon projection that can cause drought-like conditions.
El Nino is a weather condition of warming of sea surface temperatures which affect wind patterns and causes floods and droughts in different parts of the world. El Nino pattern lasts for about a year on average.
According to Skymet, a private weather forecast company, El Nino has always opposite effect on Indian monsoon so it is said that these are inversely related. The most prominent droughts in India - since 1871 -six of them - have been El Nino droughts. These are including the recent ones in 2002 and 2009.
However, not all El Nino years can cause a drought in India. For example, 1997/98 was a strong El Nino year but there was no drought in India. On the other hand, in 2002 was a moderate El Nino but it resulted one of the worst droughts.
Historical data for 126 years (1880-2005) compiled by Skymet says that the 90 per cent of all El Nino years have led to the below-normal rainfall and 65 per cent of evolving El Nino years have caused the droughts in India. However, one thing is clear from these data that El Nino years do affect monsoon rainfall in India. During this time, the rainfall is lot below normal, which will have its bearing on crop production as well.
Here is the table shows the effect of El Nino on the Indian Monsoon
Source: Skymet
